Here's The Logic Of That Little Tidbit

The other day, I posted that 28% of Republicans thought the oil spill in the gulf made them more likely to support offshore drilling.  Huh? What?

Well, Nate Silver come through with the logic:

At the same time, if you do give people an "illogical" response, sometimes they're going to pick it! This question was immediately preceded by one about support for offshore drilling overall. It may be that some of the respondents had an instinct to dig in their heels and wanted to appear consistent, using the question to reaffirm the support for offshore drilling that they'd already expressed. That is, saying that the spill makes you more likely to support offshore drilling may not literally be true but instead may mean something more along the lines of "you're damned right I support offshore drilling!".

It may also be that some people were confused by the question, or were not paying much attention to it. A lot of people might have taken PPP's call while ironing their clothes, or watching TV, or getting their kids ready for soccer practice. They might have been zoning out, and heard blah-blah-blah-blah oil spill blah-blah-blah-blah more, and thought it was the choice used to express that they had become more concerned -- not more supportive -- of offshore drilling. There is arguably some evidence of this in that the percentage of people selecting this response feel a bit off and do not always track underlying opinions about offshore drilling. For instance, 17 percent of liberals picked the "more likely" response, even though only 33 percent of them supported offshore drilling to begin with, and 29 percent of African-Americans did, even though just 44 percent of them support offshore drilling.

It Isn't Easy Being Green - But It Makes It Easier To Cheat

Just fell upon a (new to me) blog that looks promising: Ulterior Motives.

Here's a part of a fun post about how being Green can make you cheat more, but seeing Green can you make you cheat less.   Wild.

A second study made a similar observation using an experiment in which people had the opportunity to cheat. In this study, participants had the chance to play a game in which they could cheat to get more points. In addition, at the end of the game, participants were asked to pay themselves in accordance with the number of correct answers they got in the game. Participants who saw green products cheated less than those who saw conventional products. In contrast, participants who bought green products actually cheated more than those who saw conventional products.

What Should Government Do Anyway - Continued

Nice add-on to my earlier post from Krugman's blog:

Thinking about BP and the Gulf: in this old interview, Milton Friedman says that there’s no need for product safety regulation, because corporations know that if they do harm they’ll be sued.

Interviewer: So tort law takes care of a lot of this ..
Friedman: Absolutely, absolutely.

Meanwhile, in the real world:

In the wake of last month’s catastrophic Gulf Coast oil spill, Sen. Lisa Murkowski blocked a bill that would have raised the maximum liability for oil companies after a spill from a paltry $75 million to $10 billion. The Republican lawmaker said the bill, introduced by Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), would have unfairly hurt smaller oil companies by raising the costs of oil production. The legislation is “not where we need to be right now” she said.

And don’t say that we just need better politicians. If libertarianism requires incorruptible politicians to work, it’s not serious.

Starbucks vs Dunkin' Donuts vs Mountain Dew

I've generally felt for awhile that Starbucks is a much better coffee experience.  I'm not talking about the taste, the atmosphere, or the service.  I'm talking about the caffeine content.  And I just found out that it's clearly true; Starbucks does make for a better coffee experience. 

A 16 oz Starbucks has 330 milligrams of caffeine.  Dunkin' Donuts?  Half that at 143.  And for those out there drinking the dew, you're stuck down around 55.  (Source)

Mmm.  I know where I'm going for my next cup.

What Should Government Do Anyway

(Link - A friend actually posted the real link on Facebook when it came out last month. But it was posted on Krugman's blog just after that)

I'm Pissed Off. And I'm Going To Complain About It.

Michael Kinsey has a fun column today on the Tea Party.  He basically says they are a bunch of incoherent whiners.

“I like what they’re saying. It’s common sense,” a random man-in-the-crowd told a Los Angeles Times reporter at a big Tea Party rally. Then he added, “They’ve got to focus on issues like keeping jobs here and lowering the cost of prescription drugs.” These, of course, are projects that can be conducted only by Big Government. If the Tea Party Patriots ever developed a coherent platform or agenda, they would lose half their supporters.

Principled libertarianism is an interesting and even tempting idea. If we wanted to, we could radically reduce the scope of government—defend the country, give poor people enough money to live decently, and leave it at that. But this isn’t the TPP vision. The TPP vision is that you can keep your Medicare benefits and balance the budget by ending congressional earmarks, and perhaps the National Endowment for the Arts.

(Hat Tip: Andrew Sullivan)
Needless to say, I don't think Michael will be attending any Tea Party rallies in the near future.

The Blame Shifting Campaign

(Hat Tip: Ezra Klein)
(One Source)

It Worse Than That, He's Dead Jim

Here's Matt Yglesias on how much worse the oil spill is than we've been told to-date (link) while getting to the bottom of how this could have happened:

Two important pieces of news on the Gulf oil disaster today. One is that it seems both BP and the government have likely been underestimating the extent of the disaster, with oil being spilled at a pace of approximately two Exxon Valdezes per week. Here’s some video of oil pouring out of a damaged well that BP has been suppressing for weeks.

We also have a major scoop from the New York Times about how the pro-drilling leadership of the Minerals Management Service “gave permission to BP and dozens of other oil companies to drill in the Gulf of Mexico without first getting required permits from another agency that assesses threats to endangered species” and “also routinely overruled its staff biologists and engineers who raised concerns about the safety and the environmental impact of certain drilling proposals in the gulf and in Alaska, according to a half-dozen current and former agency scientists.”

And here's a cool t-shirt.

Krugman Calls BS

He does it all the time.  His latest BS call is on all the analogies being made between the US and Greece. (Here's a link to Krugman's column).  Once he explains the reasons why the analogy is false, he goes on to show why they are being made:

And bear in mind, also, that taxes have lagged behind spending partly thanks to a deliberate political strategy, that of “starve the beast”: conservatives have deliberately deprived the government of revenue in an attempt to force the spending cuts they now insist are necessary.

...

So here’s the reality: America’s fiscal outlook over the next few years isn’t bad. We do have a serious long-run budget problem, which will have to be resolved with a combination of health care reform and other measures, probably including a moderate rise in taxes. But we should ignore those who pretend to be concerned with fiscal responsibility, but whose real goal is to dismantle the welfare state — and are trying to use crises elsewhere to frighten us into giving them what they want.

Here's a little more on that "starve the beast" thing from Bruce Bartlet.

Maybe Next Year

I wouldn't get your hopes up on a climate bill coming out of DC this year.  I know that Kerry/Lieberman unveiled their bill yesterday and there has been much reporting on what it would do.  But I think Ezra Klein makes the key point in this post.

Meanwhile, John Kerry and Joe Lieberman brought out their "American Power Act," but it's being greeted with a sort of respectful sympathy, not calls for action. Notice that the president is in Buffalo, New York to talk jobs, not climate.

(Emphasis is his).

Maybe Obama Isn't Like Carter Afterall

You should click on this link, just to see the other covers of Obama on The Weekly Standard.  Here's the key quote from Jonathan Chait:

Now that Obama has won his biggest legislative priority and is closing in on at least one other important win, the tone is change. The hapless patsy has become the snarling bully. The lack of Republican support for Obama's agenda, once a credit to Republican tough-mindedness, is now blamed upon Obama's stubbornness. Here is a recent cover of Obama--the nefarious, but powerful, overseer:




The Standard is a reliable reflection of Republican propaganda tropes. The shift in tone from gloating at Obama's weakness to complaining at the unfairness of his strength is the clearest signal Obama seems to be escaping the worst fate -- to be a Jimmy Carter or a Bill Clinton circa 1994 or 1995.

"It's Your Piece of S--- Now"

Stewart goes where the press dare not go...

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Sometimes Playing The Outside Game Is All You Need For The Win

Here's part of a nice post from Nate Silver at 538.com (An absolute must-read site; especially as we get closer to the mid-terms).

In addition, obviously, there is significant anti-incumbent sentiment within the country which seems to cross all political boundaries. While Mollohan lost to a challenge from his right -- not incredibly shocking in a state where just 34 percent of the Democratic primary electorate describes itself as liberal -- incumbents of all kinds are having problems:

-- Republican Senator Bob Bennett was eliminated at Utah's nominating convention last week by Tea Party-supported candidates.

-- Also in Utah, Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson was forced into a primary after delegates gave 45 percent of their votes to Claudia Wright, a retired schoolteacher who ran sharply to his left.

-- Arlen Specter appears more likely than not to lose to Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania next week. Sestak has made a point of running to Specter's left, although polling indicates ambiguous patterns of preferences according to voter ideology. (In Rasmussen's cross-tabs [gated], Sestak leads 56-39 among liberal primary voters but also 51-38 among conservatives; Specter leads 46-37 among self-described moderates.)

-- Recent polling shows Democratic challengers closing on incumbent Senators Richard Burr in North Carolina and Chuck Grassley in Iowa.

-- John McCain, having released this strange ad, seems to be nervous about his position in Arizona, where J.D. Hayworth is challenging him and has been close in some polls.

We scarcely need to mention, of course, how many Democratic incumbents are liable to lose their general election bids.

I don't look forward to the possibility of a 'Tea Party' controlled House.  But, they are definitely playing the 'outside game'.

Rock, Paper, Scissors (Lizard, Spock)

(Link to more)

Spin This

Hat Tip

Untrustworthy Scumbags

The owners of Facebook are building a huge, searchable, database of all the important aspects of their user population. And they’re not shy about finding new ways to exploit it. Plus, it’s a bait and switch. “Here’s a great way to connect with family and friends that YOU can control. I mean WE can control. And we change the rules about WE and YOU any time it suits us. Have fun!”. And the beauty of the bait and switch is that it gets the user base comfortable with sharing information with each other. Why not, it’s fun to share. But then Facebook can change the default on that privately shared information from private to public as soon as it finds a market for the data. Then sell the information to highest bidder. And so long as they make the effort to hide previously private information difficult, but possible, they can still sell most of the data.  Enough of it to make some bucks on their (Not yours) valuable data.

I’m beginning to think the “private to public - bait and switch” IS their business model.

Frankly, they do create value for the users. I haven’t found a tool that works as well as theirs.  The network effect is amazing. You put a profile on and within a few months, you’ll reconnect with dozens of people you never thought you’d ever have contact with again.  It’s pretty amazing.

It’s too bad the owners are untrustworthy scumbags.

The Problem Is That You're Reading USA Today

Yesterday, I thought I found a brilliant factoid here.  Then I read this from Kevin Drum:

Not quite. According to the BEA, personal income in 2009 totalled $12 trillion and personal current taxes totalled $1.1 trillion. Sure enough, that's 9.2%. But, ahem, there's also $967 billion in "contributions for government social insurance." That's taxes to you and me. So that's $2.1 trillion in taxes, or about 17% of personal income.

But according to the OMB, federal tax receipts in 2009 totalled $2.1 trillion. And according to the Census Bureau, state and local tax receipts in 2009 totalled $1.2 trillion. That's $3.3 trillion, not $2.1 trillion. Do we really have $1.2 trillion in taxes not being paid by individuals? State and federal corporate taxes only amounted to about $200 billion. Are they not counting the employer portion of payroll taxes?

In any case, our total tax bite, which is eventually paid by individuals no matter what channel it goes through, was $3.3 trillion in 2009. That's 27.5% of personal income, not 9.2%. Caveat emptor.

Umm.  27.5% is much higher than 9.2%.  And frankly, what was I thinking that the number could even be 9.2%?  I mean payroll taxes alone are close to 14% (Split between employer and employee).  9.2% on its face should have looked wrong to me.  My bad.

Not So Happy Owning in Nevada

Check out the chart below:

That's 70% of homeowners have negative equity.  Let me repeat that number.  70%.
(Hat tip:  Marginal Revolution)

"It's playtime in the world of imagination"

Plus a nicely timed "Oh... so no-one knows what the f--- they're doing"

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Anybody Get the Logic of this Little Tidbit

From the analysis of a poll by PPP:

28% of Republicans said the recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico made them more likely to support drilling off the coast

What?  I'll assume they were joking.

Tell Me Again What the Problem Is

Source

Federal, state and local taxes — including income, property, sales and other taxes — consumed 9.2% of all personal income in 2009, the lowest rate since 1950, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That rate is far below the historic average of 12% for the last half-century. The overall tax burden hit bottom in December at 8.8.% of income before rising slightly in the first three months of 2010.

UPDATE:  This information has been challenged pretty well by Kevin Drum.  9.2% just looks wrong. See this.

Midterm Tea Leaves (or: The People Are Pissed Off)

Here's Charlie Cook's take (link):

When one party has control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, a midterm election is pretty much a referendum on that party. The electorate's anti-everything mood is likely to manifest itself only one way in November -- that is, against Democrats. Between now and then, however, a different dynamic could be in play. Republicans in particular should watch upcoming primaries apprehensively to see whether their party is nominating candidates with the potential to attract broad-based support and take full advantage of the anti-Democratic tide, or if it is opting for candidates who might be too extreme even in what should be a great year for the GOP.

But have no doubt: The anger is real. The only question is precisely how it will be channeled.

I've been reading this kind of thing all year and will probably continue to read it.  Here's the part I don't entirely get:

Meanwhile... In The Real World

Arnie is faced with a problem that no one-liner can solve.

The state budget crisis has been quiet for the past few months but will return to center stage this week as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger prepares to belt out some bad news.

The governor is scheduled to release an updated budget plan Friday that will probably include even deeper cuts than those he proposed in January, when he called for reductions in health and human services, prisons, education and state worker pay, among other areas.

Source

Noted in the article, it's a $20 billion deficit, there's no way to raise taxes as it requires a 2/3 majority vote in the legislature to pass any budget (seriously, this is a bad structure), state revenues are expected to be lower than originally projected, federal help has been smaller than anticipated.  Oh, and apparently most of the options to close the deficit were used last year.  Anticipated cuts will be 'harsh'.  Wow.

Did I mention that the recession is supposed to be over? Hooray recovery!

Arnie Was Always Good with the One-Liners

Here are a couple quotes from the CA governor's commencement speech at Emory:

“I was also going to give a graduation speech in Arizona this weekend. But with my accent, I was afraid they would try to deport me.”

“Finally, the Kennedys will think I’m a success. And Maria can finally bring me home to meet her family.”

Source
Hat Tip

What's a Trillion Dollars Worth Anyway?

Been lots of posting on the move by the ECB last night.  Looks like the euro went up against the dollar on the initial news and then fell back later in the day (hat tip - Krugman).

I think Felix Salmon captures why here:

Europe Growth Forecast Chart

Nice interactive chart for seeing the growth forecast in europe.  The 'PIGS' look like you'd expect them to (bad).  I was a little surprised by France's high unemployment rate.  Here's the link to the chart (where you can actually play with it).

Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz

Big Content Win

This is pretty technical, but one easy way to understand it is that it means my brother-in-law is right: Selectable output control is going to go away.  Big content is actively looking for ways to close the 'analog' hole.  And based on this piece in Arc Technica, the hole just got smaller:

After almost two years of deliberation, the Federal Communications Commission has granted Hollywood and cable companies permission to shut down analog streams to HDTV equipped home theaters. The geek term for this is "selectable output control" (SOC)—until now forbidden by the FCC. The Motion Picture Association of America requested a waiver on the SOC ban in May of 2008, arguing that without it, Hollywood studios could not securely offer consumers pre-DVD released movies on television.

So, here's the deal:

A Tipping Point?

Just another person cancelling their Facebook account.  Or is it?
(It probably is - but, I'd love to be at the beginning of this particular wave)

Here is James Kwak at the Baseline Scenario (link):

In short, there has been a massive, one-directional shift in how much of your information is visible by default either to everyone on Facebook, or to everyone on the Internet. Now, the usual defense of Facebook is that this is only by default; you can control information access via your privacy settings, which have gotten more fine-grained over time.

But this argument doesn’t fly for me. First of all, there is the problem that many people don’t realize they have this control and don’t use it. Second, finding and using those privacy settings is not trivial. But for years, I figured that I was savvy and careful enough to protect myself adequately. I’m not that paranoid about personal information on the Internet to begin with–there are various versions of my biography already floating around–and besides, I worked in the software industry for eight years (some of that time helping to design and configure software, not just market and sell it), so I should be able to figure this stuff out.

Want To Increase Voter Turnout?

Apparently, it's as easy as asking the right question:

A new study shows that phone calls to encourage people to vote can be made more effective by a simple strategy - that is, by asking the would-be voter to spell out what time they plan to vote, where they will be coming from prior to voting and what they will have been doing beforehand.

Link

Really?