Best Email Ever

OK,

I've used "Best Email Ever" way too many times for that headline to be credible. But really, this is pretty good stuff.  Here's a snipet from a post on The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz's blog) (link):

“The old pay system (era of John Whitehead): you work at an investment bank for 30 years, have a reasonable draw and cash bonus, build up stock in the firm as most of your bonus, and when you decide to retire you request of the partners their permission to go limited. If they assent, you get to withdraw your money over five years, all the while continuing to expose the balance to the risks of the enterprise.

The new pay system post-Donald Lufkin Jenrette’s original I.P.O.: you’re a young 29-year-old punk playing with OPM (Other People’s Money), taking huge risks for which you get huge bonuses, while the outsiders shoulder the losses on your bets. You make all the money you’ll ever need in three years, stay around 15 years to pile up five times as much as you need, and then you retire with your cash hoard, buy a winery in Napa/Sonoma or a huge farm in Connecticut, living above the fray for the rest of your life.

Which system, do you think, makes people consider the downside of their actions?”

That explains a ton.  Really, it doesn't much insight into human behavior to see how badly the incentives line up here.  It wasn't just a housing crisis that brought us to the brink in 2008.

The home crisis isn't over

Here's Ritholtz on why home prices are too high (link).

In my analysis, price stands out as being the prime mover of the next leg down. High unemployment, and a decade of flat wages aren’t helping to create any new housing demand. And the millions in homes they cannot afford will eventually add more pressure to inventory and prices.

But the bottom line is Home prices remain too high: There can be no doubt that home prices have moved way down from the 2005-06 peaks. How did I reach the conclusion that, even after a 33% decrease in prices?

By using traditional metrics. Whether we are looking at US housing stock as a percentage of GDP or Median income vs home prices or even ownership vs renting costs, prices remain elevated. Indeed, we see prices remain above historic mean.

I'd recommend reading the whole post if you're following the housing market.  He's got a great perspective and it shows in this writing.  Below are two charts he references in his post.  Good stuff!

Right.

Here's Barry Ritholtz on social security (link):

The issue of government debt seems to be coming up a lot news lately. Courtesy of the credit collapse and economic recession, Deficits are front page news. Classic balance budget advocates are reiterating their views, joined by hypocritical partisans who, after a decade of spending profligacy, unfunded tax cuts, new entitlement programs and a war of choice, have “suddenly” discovered the evils of borrowing.

Then there are the major entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and the Prescription Drug plan. These are, we are told, an even bigger problem then the ordinary budget deficit. As presently configured, the entitlement deficits are set to skyrocket as the boomers retire. Social Security especially is a target of persistent fear-mongering.

This is all unvarnished nonsense. Social Security is at present, financially stable; As it starts to run into increasing deficits, the political classes will be forced to respond.

To repeat a point re-iterated at length during the health care reform debate, the long run deficit is all about controlling the cost of health care (link, link, link, link, link, link, etc...).  If you care about long-run deficits, then figuring out how to contain these costs should be the focus of your attention.  All this other talk is just fear mongering.