Updates, Updates, Updates

Still playing with this blog format thing.  Today I:

• Briefly added a link to my photos on Picassa and then thought better of it.  
• Searched like crazy trying to find a way to get Facebook status updates onto the blog.  It looks like you used to be able to do this with an rss feed and then Facebook turned off the functionality.  Which makes sense.  They want you to go to their page for content and not somebody else's.  So no facebook status feed is in the works (No big loss - the Twitter feed updates more anyway).
• And (crowning achievement) I just added my Pandora stations to the blog.  Admittedly, my use of Pandora is very much in its infancy, but I'm pretty sure that is about to change.

Still my to-do list on the blog is growing.  Here's what I what I'm looking to do next:

• I need to update my Linkedin profile.  It's a skeleton.  If I'm going to have a web profile, I need to manage it.  So that profile needs to some meat.  I consider it part of the blog because I link to it from the blog.  (See "The Work of Wiebe" to the right).
• I finished Tyler Cohen's book on the train today, so I need to get my quick thoughts on the reading sub-blog, What's Wiebe Reading (again to the right), before I've lost them.
• I've been playing Wii Fit and need to get my quick thoughts on it in my gaming sub-blog, What's Wiebe Playing.

That's about it for now.  I'm come up with more later.  Any suggestions for the blog are always welcome.  Comment on anything from content to format.  Negative stuff is more useful than positive stuff so don't pull any punches.

The Twitter Account

My buddy Taylor (Here's his blog: link) got me to sign up for Twitter account a little more than a year ago.  It sat and sat and sat.  I started using Facebook and wondered what the point of twitter actually was.  So it sat some more.  I literally never used it.  Not even a single tweet.

A few days ago I got to chapter four of The Age of the Infovore: Succeeding in the Information Economy (link) in which the author, Tyler Cohen (Here's his blog: link), goes into detail on all the different types of communication available in this era and the how each one is distinct.  And I think I agree.  Email is completely different than texting which is completely different than a phone call.  Each has a very difference emotional impact and each can be more or less useful depending on the content and intent of the message.  Facebook and Twitter both have their own communication uses, as do blogs and face-to-face contact.

So my Twitter experiment begins.  You can see I added my twitter posts to this blog (See right).  I have exactly one follower (Taylor did have me set-up the account), so I'm not exactly setting the world on fire with my messages.  Which is alright.  I'd love to think a cluster of people I know and like will begin using it.  But even if they don't, I have to say I'm already enjoying getting tweets from people (mostly my favorite bloggers) that I'm now following in my twitter feed.

If I'm still using Twitter next year, then something about this worked.  Consider yourself invited to come along for the ride (link).

My Current Facebook Resolution

I created this site in response to my sincere annoyance at the owners of Facebook and their willful disregard for their users.  Several of my posts criticize Facebook and link to criticisms of their policy changes.  I stand by those posts.  It's all true.  The people who run Facebook SUCK.

They also have the most useful social media tool going today.  I admit that I hoped they would be taken down by their mistakes.  It isn't going to happen.  They hit the scale needed to keep growing and growing and displacing the other social media pages.  Let me put it this way.  Your parents bothered to set up Facebook profiles and some of them are actively using it.  Your parents are not moving away from this.  Neither is every other commercial entity that actively markets their own Facebook page.  Facebook won (for now).  Facebook is what the cable company was before the satellite providers.

So...  How do I reconcile my complete disdain for the owners with the overall usefulness of their services?  The key is this blog.  I'm going to make a new Facebook ID.  I'm going to make it completely public.  There is no way I can be surprised by changes in privacy policy when I've given up all pretense of having any privacy.  Then I'm going to completely minimize what I put into Facebook.  I figure they own anything I put into their system.  So what if I just post to my blog and... then use Facebook to link to my blog?  Now they can own the link but I control my content.  If I want to post photos, well, I'm NOT going to do it on Facebook.  I'll link to any number of the other sites that hosts pictures (Flickr, Picasa, Shutterfly, etc.).  Why should I give it to Facebook?  I know I can't trust them.  So I'll just give them the links.  To stuff I control.

To sum up, (1) Assume no privacy (2) Keep control of my material.  I get the benefits of the friend lists and the friend feed and the voyeuristic view of the people I used to know.  I keep the fun stuff.  And give Facebook as little as possible.

Will this work?  I can't say for sure.  It's worth a shot.  And I'll continually re-assess my stand.  I don't like these guys.  But there are plenty of business with services I use whose business practices I don't particularly care for (Think Comcast).  Upon reflection I believe I can make this relationship work.

Blog Update

So...

I've been neglecting my blog.  No postings for close to ten days and the last few posts were kinda weak.  Here's the deal.  Blog posting while on vacation is... not going to happen.  Then work intruded upon my return.  But, I'm still following the noise and just as annoyed at the rise of the tea party, fake deficit concern, and the BP oil spill.  I've seen several items that I thought were discussion worthy, but timing is everything and opportunities sometimes get a pass.  On to the next topics.

Here are my current blog to-do's:

• I have one book to report on in my reading sub-blog (and I'm almost finished with another book).
• I actually have a game to report on in my gaming sub-blog.
• I decided today that I will re-join Facebook.  Given the subject of this blog, an entry explaining how and why is imperative.  I haven't joined up again yet.  When I do, a blog post explanation will definitely follow.
• I decided to start using my twitter account.  The best part is my feed gets posted to my blog.  So, I need to figure out who to follow on twitter (You're welcome to follow me, my 140 character thoughts are amazing).  My Twitter use demands a blog post explanation.  Also to come.

OK, I'm behind.   But, if you're still reading at this point, your excitement at this wild to-do list must be palpable.  Don't worry, I'll go slowly so as to keep things from getting too crazy. 

Thanks for reading.  More to come.

I'm not a fan...

of torture advocates.  Sullivan find a great quote from one (link):

"Soccer is a socialist sport," - Marc Thiessen, AEI.

 

Which one are you?

(link)

(Hat tip: The Big Picture)

"His column is going to be scathing tomorrow morning"

That's what I said to my wife right after I read this headline last night:

World Leaders Agree on Timetable for Cutting Deficits

Sure enough, here's the title of Krugman's column as of this morning:

The Third Depression

Best Email Ever

OK,

I've used "Best Email Ever" way too many times for that headline to be credible. But really, this is pretty good stuff.  Here's a snipet from a post on The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz's blog) (link):

“The old pay system (era of John Whitehead): you work at an investment bank for 30 years, have a reasonable draw and cash bonus, build up stock in the firm as most of your bonus, and when you decide to retire you request of the partners their permission to go limited. If they assent, you get to withdraw your money over five years, all the while continuing to expose the balance to the risks of the enterprise.

The new pay system post-Donald Lufkin Jenrette’s original I.P.O.: you’re a young 29-year-old punk playing with OPM (Other People’s Money), taking huge risks for which you get huge bonuses, while the outsiders shoulder the losses on your bets. You make all the money you’ll ever need in three years, stay around 15 years to pile up five times as much as you need, and then you retire with your cash hoard, buy a winery in Napa/Sonoma or a huge farm in Connecticut, living above the fray for the rest of your life.

Which system, do you think, makes people consider the downside of their actions?”

That explains a ton.  Really, it doesn't much insight into human behavior to see how badly the incentives line up here.  It wasn't just a housing crisis that brought us to the brink in 2008.

"It's just like our job"

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Jon Stewart sets them up, then knocks 'em down.

When it rains...

Really awful story on the tents provided to Haiti (link):

Hurricane season in Haiti officially began three weeks ago, bringing rain to the region nearly every day. More than 1.5 million Haitians remain in the streets. Yet this week, the United Nations completed a study, revealing that 40 percent of all emergency shelters, including tents and tarps, already need to be replaced or "improved."

It took the international community five months to distribute almost 700,000 tarps and 70,000 tents and remains one of the most complex and difficult accomplishments of the disaster response. The new study, however, shows that emergency shelter materials cannot withstand the extreme weather in Haiti. In particular, small camping-style tents have fallen apart.

(Hat Tip: Marginal Revolution)

The home crisis isn't over

Here's Ritholtz on why home prices are too high (link).

In my analysis, price stands out as being the prime mover of the next leg down. High unemployment, and a decade of flat wages aren’t helping to create any new housing demand. And the millions in homes they cannot afford will eventually add more pressure to inventory and prices.

But the bottom line is Home prices remain too high: There can be no doubt that home prices have moved way down from the 2005-06 peaks. How did I reach the conclusion that, even after a 33% decrease in prices?

By using traditional metrics. Whether we are looking at US housing stock as a percentage of GDP or Median income vs home prices or even ownership vs renting costs, prices remain elevated. Indeed, we see prices remain above historic mean.

I'd recommend reading the whole post if you're following the housing market.  He's got a great perspective and it shows in this writing.  Below are two charts he references in his post.  Good stuff!

Hey, it can't be that bad. It got a B+.

Mmm.  Burger.  Mmm.  Grilled Cheese.

Here's a sum up of the new Grilled Chess BurgerMelt from Friendly's (link):

Friendly's Grilled Cheese BurgerMelt
Grade: B+
Nutritional Info: 1500 calories, 97 grams fat, 2090 mgs sodium

While completely over the top, this sandwich is also pure genius. Yes, it's higher in calories, fat and sodium than the Double Down, but the ingredients in this sandwich are more harmonious, making it an embarrassingly pleasurable eating experience. (As one of our readers recently commented, "...at its heart, all this is is a cheeseburger on buttered toast.")

The grilled cheese "buns" were buttery, oozing with just the right amount of cheese and just the right amount of greasiness. True, the burger could have been more plump and juicy but it was the right amount of beef to balance out the two grilled cheese sandwiches. The only thing we'd do differently is skip the lettuce. Watery, shredded lettuce did not pair well with the grilled cheese.

 Hungry?  Take two of these and call me from the hospital.

Be sure to look at comment #4...

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2010/06/obama-adopts-the-kristol-method/

Nice.

Why not pay more for less?

First, three points:

1.  Health care costs will drive the long-run federal deficit.
2.  Our current health care system is one of the lowest international performers.
3.  We spend more on health care than anybody.

For more on that second point , here's Ezra Klein (link) quoting from the most recent commonwealth fund report (link):

But even with all that spending, "the U.S. ranks last overall, as it did in the 2007, 2006, and 2004 editions of Mirror, Mirror. Most troubling, the U.S. fails to achieve better health outcomes than the other countries, and as shown in the earlier editions, the U.S. is last on dimensions of access, patient safety, coordination, efficiency, and equity. The Netherlands ranks first, followed closely by the U.K. and Australia."

The issue isn't just that we don't have universal health care. Our delivery system underperforms, too. "Even when access and equity measures are not considered, the U.S. ranks behind most of the other countries on most measures. With the inclusion of primary care physician survey data in the analysis, it is apparent that the U.S. is lagging in adoption of national policies that promote primary care, quality improvement, and information technology."

As we begin to see health care change over the next five years, it will be very important to keep an eye on these metrics.  If the US doesn't find a way to improve, more change will absolutely be necessary.

Here are some illustrative charts from Ezra's post:

Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick...

Per Charlie Cook (link), time to change the political dynamic before the mid-terms is almost out:

Two of the most common clichés in American political circles are "all politics is local" and "a few months is a lifetime in politics." Each contains a kernel of truth, but both have become all-too-handy excuses for pols seeking to explain away unpleasant realities.

...

In this election year, the circumstances and dynamics have not materially improved for Democrats since Labor Day. With a little more than four months to go before the November election, the chances of this contest's trajectory fundamentally changing decline with every passing week.

Great poll interpretation in the rest of the article.  If you think the GOP has already peaked this cycle, you may want to change your assessment.

Gulf Spill Pictures

Some great spill pictures at Boston.com (link).

(Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)

Do you mind if I take a copy of that?

Perhaps breaking copyright law is a good thing.  Here's Matthew Yglesias (link) quoting from the abstract of research studying the impact of file-sharing (Felix Oberholzer-Gee of Harvard and Koleman Strumpf of the University of Kansas wrote the paper, here):

The advent of file sharing has considerably weakened effective copyright protection. Today, more than 60% of internet traffic consists of consumers sharing music, movies, books and games. Yet, despite the popularity of the new technology, file sharing has not undermined the incentives of authors to produce new works. We argue that the effect of file sharing has been muted for three reasons. (1) The cannibalization of sales that is due to file sharing is more modest than many observers assume. Empirical work suggests that in music, no more than 20% of the recent decline in sales is due to sharing. (2) File sharing increases the demand for complements to protected works, raising, for instance, the demand for concerts and concert prices. The sale of more expensive complements has added to artists’ incomes. (3) In many creative industries, monetary incentives play a reduced role in motivating authors to remain creative. Data on the supply of new works are consistent with the argument that file sharing did not discourage authors and publishers. Since the advent of file sharing, the production of music, books, and movies has increased sharply.

See, grabbing content from pirate bay is actually good for society.  I knew it.

The stimulus problem.

Here's the problem with the Federal Stimulus bill passed in 2009.

(source)

OK, it's scary to run deficits.  But, the problem in the states is what people were talking about when they said that the 2009 federal stimulus package was too small and should have done more to help the states.  So now the states, which can't run deficits, are being forced to cut spending which further exacerbates the recession.  Here's Bruce Bartlett (link), Ezra Klein (link), and Paul Krugman (link) far more eloquent than I on the issue.

Count me as one of those people worried about a double-dip recession.  And no, I don't see how cutting government spending right now, with unemployment stuck around 10%, is going to make our economy better in the long-run.  I wish I did.  And no, I don't see how the current political environment is going to be supportive of a further stimulus plan.  And no, the mid-terms should make it harder, not easier, to fix the economy.

Sweet.

The day the deficit didn't die.

I try to keep a little hope that any bipartisan deficit commission will actually end up being a useful exercise, rather then the policy punt it so obviously is. Well, even a little hope is probably too much. Here's Krugman (link):

Specifically, Simpson has resurrected the old nonsense about how Social Security will be bankrupt as soon as payroll tax revenues fall short of benefit payments, never mind the quarter century of surpluses that came first.

...

here’s what you can’t do: you can’t have it both ways. You can’t say that for the last 25 years, when Social Security ran surpluses, well, that didn’t mean anything, because it’s just part of the federal government — but when payroll taxes fall short of benefits, even though there’s lots of money in the trust fund, Social Security is broke.

So, it looks like another meaningless deficit commission. It's my belief that fear-mongering on the deficit is too useful a political weapon for the GOP to seriously engage in substantive discussions with their opposition.  So, guess what? The quickest way to end meaningful policy discussions is to start making up 'facts' that are politically expedient but easily disproved by anyone paying attention to the numbers.

Nice.

UPDATE:  Great post on the deficit commission from Jonathan Bernstein (link).

Sometimes, when you put your foot in your mouth, it's best to just keep on talking.

Here's David Frum on what has to be his favorite topic (link):

This story is another example of the harm done by allowing talk radio & Fox – rather than elected officials and aspiring candidates – to define the GOP. Anybody heard any objection to the escrow fund from Mitt Romney? Has Mitch Daniels termed it a “shakedown”? Bobby Jindal seems cool with the idea, ditto Mitch McConnell. But these real leaders are crowded out by people trying to bump ratings a point or two by inciting another prime time hour’s worth of anti-Obama indignation.

And here's the video he's reacting to:

"Fool me eight times... Am I a F____g idiot?"

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That didn't take long.

Here's the GOP representative from Arlington Texas, Joe Barton (link):

"BP should bear the full financial responsibility for the accident on their lease in the Gulf of Mexico," Barton said in a written statement. "BP should fully compensate those families and businesses that have been hurt by this accident. BP and the federal government need to stop the leak, clean up the damage, and take whatever steps necessary to prevent a similar accident in the future." 

He added: “I regret the impact that my statement this morning implied that BP should not pay for the consequences of their decisions and actions in this incident."

Apologizing to BP was such a ridiculous stunt.  I'm not surprised to see Barton backing away from his statement.  As as aside, its pretty clear why he made the statement.  Here's 538 on his campaign contributors (link).

UPDATE:  The walk back is only a walk back from the words, not the intent of the statement.  Here's from Sullivan's blog (link).

Yes. They will attack anything.

So we all know that Obama got BP to agree to cut it's $10.5 billion annual dividend and set up a $20.0 billion fund to start paying out claims (link, link).  Apparently, this was a bad thing to do (Per TPM).

BP is ponying up $20 billion for Gulf Spill oil damages. And quite a few Republicans don't like it one bit.

Here is the usual list of suspects: link, link, link, link.  These guys are the leaders of party poised to win the next election.  Really.

Right.

Here's Barry Ritholtz on social security (link):

The issue of government debt seems to be coming up a lot news lately. Courtesy of the credit collapse and economic recession, Deficits are front page news. Classic balance budget advocates are reiterating their views, joined by hypocritical partisans who, after a decade of spending profligacy, unfunded tax cuts, new entitlement programs and a war of choice, have “suddenly” discovered the evils of borrowing.

Then there are the major entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and the Prescription Drug plan. These are, we are told, an even bigger problem then the ordinary budget deficit. As presently configured, the entitlement deficits are set to skyrocket as the boomers retire. Social Security especially is a target of persistent fear-mongering.

This is all unvarnished nonsense. Social Security is at present, financially stable; As it starts to run into increasing deficits, the political classes will be forced to respond.

To repeat a point re-iterated at length during the health care reform debate, the long run deficit is all about controlling the cost of health care (link, link, link, link, link, link, etc...).  If you care about long-run deficits, then figuring out how to contain these costs should be the focus of your attention.  All this other talk is just fear mongering.

No apologies

"I'm sorry" really isn't enough.

(Hat Tip: TPM)

"The company is not aware of any reason which justifies this share price movement."

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What could possibly go wrong?

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I didn't know golf games were this cool

(Warning - LOTS of curse words)

Nothing to see here, move along...

Great quote (link) from Haley Barbour (GOP governor of Mississippi):

He's exactly right to call for continued drilling. Let me — let me say a couple things. In the last 50 years, the four states that allow offshore drilling on the gulf, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas and Alabama — more than 30,000 wells have been drilled in the Gulf of Mexico.

This is the first time in that more than 30,000 we have ever had anything like this happen. About 30 percent of America's production of oil and gas coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. If you shut this down, don't kid yourself, you're not shutting it down for six months. These big oil rigs — by the way, B.P. and Transocean are not even American companies.

In six months, these oil rigs aren't going to be sitting around the gulf waiting. They're going to be in west Africa. They'll be in Indonesia. They're going to be in China. They're going to be drilling oil wells elsewhere in the world.

And the loss of production that we're going to suffer will make us even more dependent on the Middle East, on Venezuela, on people that aren't our friends.

And let me tell you one other little thing environmentalists ought to think about. Of the 10 worst oil spills in American history, seven of them were from ships. Seven of them were from ships.

So we had a big disaster.  Caused by deep sea drilling.  And we're not entirely sure why.  Oh, and the disaster isn't over yet.  Whatever.  Business should go on as usual.  I mean this has only happened badly a few times.  Most of the time when things go wrong its the ship's fault anyway.  You're getting all worked up over something that probably won't even happen.  Again.

Oh yea.  And get off my land, you hippie.

(Hat Tip: Doonesbury)

What does that mean?

This an attack.  Right?  Or maybe, it's something else.  Nice use of the peace sign...

(Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)