Crazy is as crazy does

Yesterday, I noticed this headline over at "Sestak Job Offer Violated Federal Law?".  Which made me remember this post over at Ezra Klein's blog by Jonathan Bernstein (link):

The incentives all run to impeachment, as far as I can tell. The leaders of such an effort would find it easy to cash in (literally, I mean) with books and appearances on the conservative lecture circuit. It's hard to believe that Rush, Beck and the rest of the gang wouldn't be tripping over each other to wear the crown of the Host Who Brought Down the socialist gangster president. And we've seen the ability, or I should say the lack thereof, of rank-and-file GOP pols to stand up to the talk show yakkers. Besides, it's not as if a new Republican majority would have a full agenda of legislative items to pass, and what they did have would face an Obama veto (and most likely death in the Senate at any rate). Against all that is the collective preference of the Republican Party not to have a reputation as a pack of loons, but that doesn't seem to be much of a constraint in practice. Of course, also against impeachment is the lack of a serious offense by the president, but I don't see that as a major impediment -- if offering a job to a potential Senate candidate is an impeachable offense (and see Jonathan Chait if you think it really is), then they'll have no trouble at all coming up with something.

I'm beginning to fear the political impact of the oil spill on the mid-term elections.  I don't want to under-emphasize the environmental/economic catastrophe by making it seem that the only impact I care about is the political one.  Especially given the horse race sensibility of my comment.  So please read this as only one aspect of my thinking.

Basically, the oil spill contributes to the growing sense of frustration on the part of the citizenry.  This leads to greater anger at incumbents.  As the GOP is out of power, this increases their likelihood of retaking the house and possibly the senate.  And because the crazies are running the GOP show, we get to the Bernstein impeachment prediction.  Which is crazy.

This sounds nuts.  And I would bet against it today.  But what else would need to happen to change my bet?  If today wasn't in June but was in late October, would my bet change?

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