The home crisis isn't over

Here's Ritholtz on why home prices are too high (link).

In my analysis, price stands out as being the prime mover of the next leg down. High unemployment, and a decade of flat wages aren’t helping to create any new housing demand. And the millions in homes they cannot afford will eventually add more pressure to inventory and prices.

But the bottom line is Home prices remain too high: There can be no doubt that home prices have moved way down from the 2005-06 peaks. How did I reach the conclusion that, even after a 33% decrease in prices?

By using traditional metrics. Whether we are looking at US housing stock as a percentage of GDP or Median income vs home prices or even ownership vs renting costs, prices remain elevated. Indeed, we see prices remain above historic mean.

I'd recommend reading the whole post if you're following the housing market.  He's got a great perspective and it shows in this writing.  Below are two charts he references in his post.  Good stuff!

No comments:

Post a Comment